Russia´s winding road to it´s “near abroad”

"We will provide Yakhont missiles to Syria, we will honor the contract," said Anatoly Serdyukov, Russian Minister of Defence. Serdyukov made his statement in the Pentagon on September 19, while being on official visit to Washington. To the United States and Israel it was the sad epilogue (or almost) of three years of negotiations that attempted to block the sale of such sophisticated missiles.

The Yakhont P-800 is a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile designed to equip Russian fleets. It measures 29 foot long, uses liquid fuel (solid fuel for take-off) and can carry a warhead of 660 pounds. Its range is 186 miles, its maximum altitude of 65,000 feet and a minimum of 6,5 feet. It has a flexible flight path, being able to change it’s altitude to avoid threats, and reaches a speed of Mach 2.5. Its passive radar combines with a powerful on board computer and electronic countermeasures to neutralize the source of jamming and make it a target. It is an extremely difficult to intercept missile. 

The Syrians joy is not a matter of surprise. Even I am tempted to rush to Moscow to buy a Yakhont P-800 and hang it on the wall, instead of the rhino head.

Dangerous skies

In August 2003, Israeli warplanes made a low fly over Damascus, a humiliation which showed the shortcomings of the Syrian air defense. Two years later, Putin announced the sale of SA-18 antiaircraft missiles to Syria and at the Israeli complains he said: "This, of course, will complicate low-altitude flights over the residence of Syrian President (Bashar Assad), but these flights are not a good idea.”

Besides the Yakhont missile, Russians will sell Syria Pantsir-S1 ground-to-air missiles and Mig-29 and Su-27 aircraft. The main interest of the Syrians is to neutralize the Israeli air power by establishing an air defence with sophisticated systems, but there’s no indication yet that the Russians are fully ready to fulfill that demand.

The Yakhont is a multi-platform missile capable of knocking down targets beyond the horizon, but Syria has no planes that can launch the missile, or the ability to track targets over the horizon. This could mean that for now the Yakhont missiles will be deployed on coastal platforms or ships. The modest Syrian Navy will have just a bit more offensive weight.  

Bow to Damascus

Tel Aviv insists that the anti-ship missile, fighter planes and other items that the Syrians put in their shopping cart, will not alter the strategic balance in the region, ie not wipe off Israel’s military supremacy in the Middle East. No doubt about it, but the Israelis does not want to confess that the Russian armed forces are part of their concern.

Russia may have to move the Black Sea Fleet from it´s base in Sevastopol in 2017, when the agreements with Ukraine expire. Although the Russian navy continues to make plans for the expansion of the base and the Ukrainian government is currently headed by Victor Yanukovich, a pro-Russian politician, a majority of Ukrainian nationalists strongly demands the withdrawal of Russia from the Crimean peninsula. Moscow does not have a good alternative to Sebastopol, but is working in the expansion of two Syrian ports, Tartus and Latakia, very near where the Canaanite alphabet was created some three thousand years ago. From these bases Russia plans to patrol the Mediterranean and to impulse its influence on the Middle East, where its energy companies are increasingly active.

It didn´t take much effort for Moscow to seduce the Syrian government, eager to please its long time friend. Russia is seen by Syria as its only possible supplier of sophisticated weaponry at subsidized prices, and the mere presence of its fleet in Tartus and Latakia is an umbrella that the Russians could strengthen if the relationship between the two countries became strategic, as everything suggests. Bashar Assad has also received Russian support in the Security Council of the UN and other international organizations.

More missiles

Tartus and Latakia may base their air defence system on Iskander-E tactical missiles and perhaps also anti-aircraft S-300 missiles. Russia threatened to deploy Iskander missiles in Sebastopol if the U.S. continued with its plans for a missile base in Poland. It doesn´t, but the Iskander could be a response to the X-band radar deployed by the Americans in 2007 in the Negev desert. The radar’s range covers southern Russia and Israel expressed mixed feelings about it, as it could anger Moscow.

The Iskander -so attractive to the Syrians that it’s first in President Assad’s wish list since 2006- is an offensive missile and its deployment is limited by international conventions.

Israel expressed concerns that the presence of the Russian fleet in Syrian ports will include monitoring of its military communications and weapons systems. Post-Soviet Russia has a good relationship with Israel and both have recently signed a military agreement eagerly sought by Tel Aviv, but Israel’s status as a staunch ally of Washington makes it impossible to be more than just friends with Moscow. Damascus, however, represents the military bases Russia may require to boost its influence in the region, and could also offer its solid ties with governments and military political movements that are key in the Middle East. After all, the Kremlin has been aligned with the Arab countries, particularly Syria, in the last 50 years.

In the last years we have assisted to a dramatic improvement in Russian-Turkish relations, after several centuries of mistrust. At the same time, Syria and Iran developed close ties, and both have a warm relationship with Turkey. We may be assisting to the first steps of a joint effort between the four countries aimed, basically, at embracing the South Caucasus and assuring stability in that turbulent region, and pushing for a durable peace agreement in the Middle East. And, of course, making business.

This might be an interesting topic for a future post.